Refinery Cost & Margin Analytics (RCMA)

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Evaluating the competitiveness of global operating refineries

Key Features

• 525+ refineries modelled
• >90% of global refinery capacity by refinery, region & company
• IHS Markit forecast scenario embedded into model
• Profitability metrics: Cash cost to produce light products (CCLP) and net/gross margin estimates, identified by refinery
• Output metrics: Refinery level yields, operating costs & metrics, logistics costs
• Functionality to generate estimated economics for hypothetical refineries
• User-input crude & product price scenarios to pressure test refinery performance across different environments
• Annual cost/margin curves: 5 years history & 10 years forecast
• Quarterly cost/margin curves: 8 quarters history & 8 quarters forecast

Key Metrics

Refinery Output Refinery Profitability
– Refinery level yields – Gross margin
– Operating Costs – Net margin
– Logistics costs – Cash cost to produce light products (CCLP)

RCMA is a New Market Offering with Broad IHS Markit Validation and Use

Current internal uses include:

1. IMO Marpol Multi-Client Study: RCMA was the backbone of the forecasted product and fuel oil (0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5% Sulfur) trade flows following the IMO Marpol regulation.
2. Naphtha Multi-Client Study: RCMA unit level throughputs and utilization used as the basis for historical Naphtha balances.
3. Crude Trade COM: RCMA refinery level crude slates leveraged for validation and forecast
4. Annual Strategic Workbook: Rationalization potential evaluated using RCMA forecasted margins

REFINERY BENCHMARKING

• Benchmark your refinery performance against the competition
• Review cost & margin estimates for competing assets
• Identify fluctuations in competitive positioning resulting from shifts in energy and market conditions

ORTFOLIO IMPROVEMENT

• Understand risk and exposure to market volatility including upcoming regulatory changes
• Determine impact of new projects and capacity additions
• Evaluate profitability of existing refineries to identify M&A targets

CAPITAL INVESMENT EVALUATION

• Calculate CCLP and gross/net margins of new capital investments
• Understand market position of new refinery relative to existing refineries
• Conduct scenario and sensitivity analysis to validate expected refinery performance

– Global
– Americas
– Europe/CIS/Africa
– Middle East/Asia
– Middle East/Europe
– Europe/Africa
– North America
– Latin America
– Europe
– CIS
– Middle East
– North Asia
– South East Asia